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The dollar index (DXY) is in no hurry to recover after ending the past week in negative territory for the second time in a row. As of this writing, DXY futures are trading near 101.62, 7 points below the closing price last Friday. It seems that market participants are still reserved about the idea of buying the dollar, and the upcoming increase of 0.50% interest rate at the next 2 Fed meetings is already taken into account in prices, according to Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Meanwhile, prices for grains and other basic foodstuffs and energy products, which have resumed growth, are providing good support to major commodity currencies, such as the Canadian, New Zealand, and Australian dollars.
Thus, futures for Brent oil are growing today for the 8th day in a row, reaching $116.25 per barrel, and 1000 cubic meters of natural gas in Europe are currently estimated at $1031, and Australia, as you know, is the largest exporter of liquefied gas, coal, iron ore, agricultural products.
AUD/USD is trading near 0.7190 as of this writing, 32 pips above the closing price at the end of last week. The pair maintains positive dynamics, tending towards key resistance levels of 0.7240, 0.7270, also receiving support from the declining US dollar (against the backdrop of weaker macro data from the US, which increases the risks that the Fed will take a pause in the interest rate hike cycle after the July meeting).
At the same time, economists note increased inflationary pressure in the Australian economy, which may force the Reserve Bank of Australia to tighten policy more aggressively. According to their forecast, in the 3rd quarter, the annual inflation rate in Australia will exceed 7%, which could force the RBA to raise the key rate to 2.75% by the beginning of next year, despite the weakening of economic activity and lower house prices. Thus, the likelihood of a repeated increase in the RBA rate by 50 basis points has increased, and this is a positive factor for the Australian currency.
This week, a number of important macro statistics for Australia and the United States are expected to be published, which will be directly reflected in the AUD/USD dynamics. However, the focus of market participants this week will be the publication on Friday (at 12:30 GMT) of the monthly report of the US Department of Labor with data on the country's labor market for May.
Thus, in the absence of negative news from Australia and the negative dynamics of the US dollar until Friday, the AUD/USD pair has every chance to come close to the above marks of 0.7240, 0.7270.
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