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The GBP/USD currency pair started an upward movement on Thursday. Despite the fact that we allowed an upward correction in the last two days of the week, on Thursday, when the euro was again inclined to fall, the pound's growth looked strange. Especially considering that there were no strong macroeconomic statistics in Britain, there were no weak statistics in the US either, and the day was remembered for Boris Johnson's resignation from the post of leader of the Conservative Party and the prime minister. We also cannot say that the pound was rising all day, as it is not. This means that the market was not unanimous in its opinion on what to do with the pound. One way or another, the upward correction began and even the critical line of Kijun-sen was worked out by the end of the day. Now a rebound from it can provoke a resumption of the pound's decline, and overcoming it will make it possible to count on growth towards the Senkou Span B line.
But trading signals for the pound were quite good on Thursday. In total, two of them were formed. First, the pair bounced off the 1.1932 extreme level twice, forming a buy signal. And then it bounced off the critical line, forming a sell signal. It was necessary to open longs in the first case, which had to be closed after forming a sell signal. As a result, this trade brought about 45-50 points of profit. It was necessary to open shorts in the second case, but later the pair could not reach the target level by only 15 points, so the profit on this transaction could only be obtained by closing it manually. In principle, towards the evening it should have been done in any case. Thus, about 10 points could be taken with this order.
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report again showed insignificant changes. During the week, the non-commercial group opened 6,700 long positions and closed 3,400 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 10,000. However, the mood of major players still remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen from the second indicator in the chart above. And the pound, despite the increase in the net position, still cannot show even a tangible upward correction. The net position has been falling for three months, now it is rising, but what difference does it make if the British currency is depreciating anyway? We have already said that the COT reports for the pound do not take into account the demand for the dollar, which is likely to remain very high right now. Consequently, even for the strengthening of the British currency, it is required that demand for it grows faster and stronger than demand for the dollar. The non-commercial group currently has a total of 88,000 short positions open and only 35,000 longs. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Neither macroeconomic statistics nor fundamental events support the UK currency. As before, we can only count on corrective growth, but we believe that the pound will continue to fall in the medium term.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. July 8. The brief but important epic has come to an end. Sweden and Finland in NATO.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. July 8. Boris Johnson has resigned. The UK is in another political crisis.
Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on July 8. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.
The British pound started another correction on the hourly timeframe, but now it needs to overcome the Kijun-sen line in order to count on something more. So far, the pound has taken only the first step towards a tangible correction, but it still needs to survive today's Nonfarms report. We highlight the following important levels for July 8: 1.1874, 1.1974, 1.2106, 1.2175. The Senkou Span B (1.2155) and Kijun-sen (1.2018) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. There are no major events or publications scheduled for Friday in the UK. In the US, we recommend paying attention to the NonFarm Payrolls report, about which a lot has already been said. This is the most important report of the day, which traders can even start working on in advance. Therefore, rather high volatility is expected on Friday.
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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