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According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair rose to the trend line and the level of 1.1933, rebounded from them, executed a reversal in favor of the US dollar, and resumed falling towards the corrective level of 685.4% (1.1684). The market reacted strongly to yesterday's inflation report in the United States. The dollar has experienced significant growth, significant decline, and significant growth again. And everything concluded where British stock quotes remained on Wednesday. In my opinion, the US dollar should have shown growth. Growth with no upward pullbacks or tests of the trend line. However, at some point, traders conducted dollar sales that did not correspond to the inflation report's value. By doing so, they misled other merchants who may have mistakenly purchased a Briton for no reason (except for the British statistics released earlier in the day, which turned out to be quite good).
In any case, everything eventually fell into place, and traders should now focus on political events in the UK, as there are no significant economic events scheduled for this week. Remember that it was announced last week that Boris Johnson would resign. In addition, the first round of voting for the new Conservative Party leader took place yesterday. Rishi Sunak, the former finance minister who resigned last week due to a new scandal involving Boris Johnson, is currently in the lead in the vote. Six out of eleven candidates advanced to the next round. The next round should occur today, and the candidate with the fewest votes will be eliminated after each subsequent vote. Two candidates should remain until July 21, after which the entire legislature will adjourn for the summer.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the British after forming a "bullish" divergence at the MACD indicator but has since resumed the process of falling quotes in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.1709). The descending trend line still characterizes bearish sentiment. Technically, the British are trading quite far from this line, so growth is possible; however, to end the downward trend, the price must close above the trend line.
Report on Commitments of Traders (COT):
The sentiment of "Non-commercial" traders has become more "bearish" in the past week. The number of long contracts held by speculators increased by 4,434, while the number of short contracts increased by 7,524. Thus, the general sentiment of the major players remained unchanged at "bearish," and the number of short contracts continues to outnumber long contracts by several. Most major players continue to shed pounds, and their mood has not changed significantly recently. Consequently, I believe the British pound could continue to decline over the next few weeks. A significant disparity between the number of long and short contracts may signal a trend reversal, but the context of the information is currently of greater importance to major players. And it continues to be against the Briton. To date, it makes no sense to dispute that speculators sell more than they purchase.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
US - number of initial applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).
There are no economic events scheduled in the United Kingdom on Thursday. There will be a single report in the United States, which is unlikely to be of interest to traders. Today, I believe the influence of the informational context will be absent.
GBP/USD forecast and trader recommendations:
When the British retraced from the trend line on the hourly chart, I suggested new sales with a target of 1,1709. Now, it is possible to maintain these open deals. I recommend buying the British pound when the hourly price closes above the trend line with a target of 1.2146.
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