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Details of the economic calendar from July 26
New home sales data in the United States came out poorly, down 8.1% in June. Despite the negative, the market is ignoring the figures due to the upcoming two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
Analysis of trading charts from July 26
EURUSD completed the movement within the side channel 1.0150/1.0270 by breaking its lower border. The quote came close to the level of 1.0100, where there was a pullback to the lower border of the previously passed flat.
The attempt return of GBPUSD below the level of 1.2000 was unsuccessful. The quote remained above, which left behind a hope for subsequent growth. This price fluctuation may be speculative, thus it is still worth tracking the consolidation points.
Economic calendar for July 27
The focus of everyone's attention is on the results of the Fed meeting, where, due to a sharp increase in the inflation rate, the regulator is aggressive. The key rate is assumed to be increased by 75 basis points, to 2.25–2.50%. It is worth noting that a few weeks ago, there was talk in the media that the Fed may well raise the rate by 100 basis points at once. In this scenario, a wave of speculation will arise since the markets have not seen such a strong rate change for a very long time.
The 75 bps rate hike scenario has already been taken into account by the market. For this reason, one should not expect strong speculation, but the US dollar may still receive support from buyers.
Strengthening dollar positions may occur during the press conference if Jerome Powell points to a 0.75% rate hike during the subsequent meeting.
A market backlash will occur in the event of a 0.5% rate increase or comments that the next hike will be smaller in scale.
Time targeting:
Results of the Fed meeting - 18:00 UTC
Press conference - 18:30 UTC
Trading plan for EUR/USD on July 27
In this situation, there is speculative interest in the market, which leads to chaotic price jumps. In order for the signal to sell the euro to be confirmed, the quote needs to stay below 1.0100. In this case, market participants will head towards the parity level.
Otherwise, the breakdown of the 1.0150 border could be false, and the quote will return to the previous flat.
Trading plan for GBP/USD on July 27
The values of 1.2000 and 1.2090 serve as control levels, where, depending on the consolidation points in a four-hour period, a signal about a possible price direction will be received.
What is reflected in the trading charts?
A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices.
Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market.
Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future.
The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.
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