11.10.202213:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD likely to resume decline

The Office for National Statistics said that the unemployment rate in the UK fell to 3.5% in August against the forecast and the previous value of 3.6%.

The average salary in the UK (excluding bonuses) increased by +5.4% (for 3 calculated months in annual terms) against +5.3% a month earlier and the forecast of +5.2%. The same indicator, taking into account bonuses, amounted to +6.0% (for 3 calculated months in annual terms) against +5.5% a month earlier and the forecast of +5.9%.

Also, the Bank of England announced additional measures to support the functioning of the market. Among other measures, it is stated that "the bank will be ready to increase the size of daily auctions in order to provide sufficient opportunities for the purchase of securities until Friday, October 14th. The maximum auction size will be confirmed every morning at 9 am and will be up to £10 billion in today's operation."

The pound received only minor support from the statement of the BoE and positive statistics on the national labor market.

The GBP/USD pair managed to rebound from intraday and 2-week lows near 1.1000 today and reach 1.1068 by the time this article was published.

However, according to economists, the GBP/USD pair is unlikely to be able to develop the upward dynamics again and rise to the intra-month high of 1.1495.

GBP/USD is still under pressure from the strengthening dollar, which is supported by demand for it as a defensive asset in the face of deteriorating global economic and geopolitical prospects.

At the same time, dollar buyers are still showing some caution on the eve of the publication of macroeconomic statistics for the United States and the September minutes of the Fed.

The harsh rhetoric of the Fed leaders regarding the prospects for monetary policy will push the dollar to further growth. At the same time, unexpected statements by Fed leaders are not ruled out, for example, that they will soon have to press a pause in the process of raising interest rates in the face of growing economic uncertainty. Earlier, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that a recession in the United States, apparently, cannot be avoided. And to raise the interest rate, especially at such a rate, is suicidal for the economy.

Needless to say, the volatility during the publication of protocols in such cases can rise sharply in the quotes of the dollar and, accordingly, the main dollar currency pairs. The level of influence on the markets can be very high, especially if, as we noted, the protocols contain unexpected information.

As for the GBP/USD pair, the breakdown of today's low of 1.0997 may be a signal to build up short positions.

Speeches by representatives of the Fed and the Bank of England, including its head, Andrew Bailey, are scheduled today at 15:30, 16:00, 18:00, and 18:35 GMT. And since there are no other important events scheduled in today's economic calendar, an increase in volatility in the GBP/USD pair should be expected during these periods.