15.05.202315:01 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Dollar: Summary and Near-Term Prospects

The dollar significantly strengthened in the second half of the past week, with its DXY index breaking through resistance at the 102.00 level, reaching a 5-week high at 102.54.

Today, the DXY attempted to continue its upward trajectory, primarily due to the strengthening of the dollar against the yen (which accounts for approximately 14% of the DXY), reaching an intraday high of 102.58 during the Asian trading session. As of writing, DXY futures were trading close to the 102.40 mark. To further develop the upward trend and to ensure a more confident rise of the DXY towards last year's high of 105.87, the price needs to break through at least two strong resistances at 102.75 and 103.00. We continue to adhere to a negative scenario for the dollar, and a break of support at 102.00 will confirm our assumptions about further decline of the DXY towards the "round" and psychologically important mark of 100.00.

From a technical perspective, to move into a medium-term bull market and return to a long-term upward trend, the price needs to break into the area above key resistance levels of 103.45, 103.70.

As for today's economic calendar regarding USD dynamics, among the scheduled events, attention should be paid to the speeches (at 12:45, 13:15, 16:30, 21:00 GMT) of the Federal Reserve leadership, which could increase volatility in dollar quotes.

Last Friday, Federal Reserve representatives Philip Jefferson and James Bullard, speaking at a monetary policy conference, stated that the U.S. Central Bank is moving in its monetary policy "in the right direction."

In their opinion, "currently, monetary policy is at the lower end of the range, which is likely restrictive enough, given the current macroeconomic state," and "inflation is still too high."

These statements suggest the possibility of a continuation of the Fed's monetary policy tightening cycle, which, in itself, is a bullish factor for the dollar. Now let's see what other representatives of the Federal Reserve leadership will say. Recall that, in the press conference following the May meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell communicated the ongoing issue of high inflationary pressure. He indicated that there was still a considerable path to traverse in order to reduce inflation, emphasizing that the current focus should be on this reduction.

As for significant macro statistics at the global market level, it will appear tomorrow at the beginning of the Asian trading session, when at 02:00 (GMT), the National Bureau of Statistics of China will publish its regular monthly report with data on the level of retail sales and industrial production volumes in the country.