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Analysis and tips on how to trade GBP/USD
The price tested the 1.2416 mark when the MACD just started to move down from zero, which confirmed the sell entry point that was created after a significant bullish correction in the morning. As a result, the pair dropped by over 30 pips.
Yesterday's macro data showed continuing inflationary pressures in the UK. Consequently, the pound surged in the first half of the day. Today, the macroeconomic calendar of the UK is empty. Therefore, I will buy according to Scenario 2. Catherine L Mann, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England may provide support for the pound today because she will likely speak about the need to continue tightening. I will open short positions according to Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.
Signal to buy:
Scenario 1: I will buy today after the price reaches 1.2399 (green line of the chart), targeting 1.2453 (thick green line). I will close long positions in the area of 1.2453 and open short ones, allowing a correction of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level. Growth may extend as a continuation of a bullish correction. Important! Before buying the instrument, make sure the MACD is above zero and just starts moving up from this level.
Scenario 2: I will also buy when the price tests the mark of 1.2365 twice, with the MACD being in the oversold zone at that moment. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a bullish reversal in the market. The quote may go either to 1.2399 or 1.2453.
Signal to sell
Scenario 1: I will sell today after the price tests the mark of 1.2365 (red line on the chart), which will cause a rapid fall in value. The bearish target is seen at 1.2322 where I will close short positions and buy the instrument, allowing a correction of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the mark. The pair may feel pressure if there is no trading activity in the area of 1.2399. Important! Before selling the instrument, make sure the MACD is below zero and just starts moving down from this level.
Scenario 2: I will also sell when the price tests the mark of 1.2399 twice, with the MACD being in the overbought zone at that moment. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a bearish reversal in the market. The quote may then go either to 1.2365 or 1.2322.
Indicators on charts:
A thin green line indicates a buy entry point.
A thick green line is the estimated price where you should place a take-profit order or close positions manually since the quote is unlikely to grow above this level.
A thin red line indicates a sell entry point.
A thick red line is the estimated price where you should place a take-profit order or close positions manually since the quote is unlikely to fall below this level.
MACD. When entering the market, it is important to pay attention to the overbought and oversold zones.
Remember that novice forex traders should be very careful when deciding to enter the market. Before the release of important fundamentals, you should stay out of the market in order to avoid sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during news releases, make sure always to place a stop-loss order to minimize losses. Without it, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management but trade large volumes.
Remember that in order to succeed in the market, you should have a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous decisions based on the current state of the market are a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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