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Early in the American session, gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 2,649 below the 4/8 Murray, and below the 200 EMA and the 21 SMA. This area has become strong resistance. In case gold tries to break out but fails, it could be seen as a signal to resume selling.
If gold finds a strong rejection around 2,655, we could expect it to fall towards the 23.6% Fibonacci around 2,633. Even if the price breaks above this level, it could fall to 2,578.
On the other hand, if gold consolidates above 2,656, the outlook could be positive and we could expect it to reach the 61.8% Fibonacci around 2,679.
Technically, gold is seen to be overbought, so we believe that it could resume its bearish cycle in the next few days. If this scenario comes true, we should wait for a confirmation that the gold price has settled below 2,655.
From a low of 2,538 to a high of 2,721, gold has made a technical correction to the 61.8% Fibonacci at 2,603. This could confirm a new bullish sequence. We only have to wait for confirmation above 2,656, which means that the metal could reach 6/8 of Murray around 2,734 in the short term.
Otherwise, gold could continue its fall and reach 2,562, where it left a gap at the beginning of last week. This would be the ultimate target for the bears.
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