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Early in the American session, EUR/USD is trading lower at about 1.0313 within the downtrend channel forming since November 22, below the 21 SMA, and above the 4/8 Murray.
The euro could remain above 1.0253 (4/8 Murray) in the next few days. If this scenario comes true, it could allow a recovery of the euro. Therefore, EUR/USD could reach the top of the bearish trend channel which coincides with 5/8 Murray and with the 21 SMA which represents a strong resistance.
On the contrary, the outlook could be negative below 4/8 Murray and EUR/USD could reach 1.01 and even continue its fall rapidly to 1.00.
Our bullish outlook prevails only if the euro breaks the downtrend channel and consolidates above 1.0376. This would mean a signal to buy with the target at the 200 EMA located at 1.0723. EUR/USD could even reach 8/8 Murray at 1.0742.
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