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The wave analysis of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. At the moment, we observe the construction of the presumed wave 3 in 3 or c of the downtrend section. If this is indeed the case, the decline in quotes will continue for a very long time, as the first wave of this section completed its construction around the 1.0450 mark. Therefore, the third wave of this trend leg should end even lower.
The market continues to slowly reduce demand for the euro, as if doubting its actions, although, in my opinion, the news background fully supports the US dollar. The unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.0955 level, which corresponds to 61.8% according to Fibonacci, indicated the completion of the construction of wave 2 in 3 or from c. Therefore, there is potential for a decline in the pair, and it is significant.
Is there a probability of a different wave analysis? Yes, there always is. However, if since October 3rd of last year, we have observed a new upward trend section, then the previous downward wave does not fit into any structure, which cannot be. Therefore, an upward section is possible only with a significant complication of the wave analysis.
The euro has no opportunities for growth.
The EUR/USD exchange rate remained unchanged on Monday. The news background today was very weak; only the report on industrial production in Germany could attract the attention of market participants. Production volume increased by 2.1% month-on-month, well above market expectations. However, demand for the European currency did not increase, which is a kind of fairness. I want to remind you that last week, five important reports in the US were supposed to increase market demand for the dollar. The labor market and unemployment statistics turned out to be much more pleasant than expected, but for some reason, the market ignored them. This means that we should see a rise in the dollar this week. Especially considering the fact that this week, there will be factors strengthening the American currency.
Two events that should lead to a new decline in the pair. First, in the US, the inflation report for March will be released, which is likely to again exceed the value of the previous month and the expectations of the Fed. Then the ECB meeting will take place, where specific terms of the first policy easing may be announced. And there are no grounds to expect that these terms will be postponed until June. I believe that the European regulator may even discuss lowering interest rates this week, but a positive decision is unlikely to be made. I don't think the ECB will want to try to "run ahead of the locomotive" and shock the markets. Nevertheless, the regulator may further weaken its "hawkish" approach, which should lead to a decrease in demand for the European currency. Based on all of the above, I expect an even stronger decline in the euro than last week.
General conclusions.
Based on the analysis of the EUR/USD, I conclude that the construction of a downward wave set continues. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are completed, so in the near future, I expect the continuation of the construction of an impulse downward wave 3 in 3 or c with a significant decline in the pair. I continue to consider sales with targets near the calculated mark of 1.0462, which corresponds to 127.2%, according to Fibonacci.
On the larger wave scale, it is visible that the presumed wave 2 or b, which in length exceeded 61.8% according to Fibonacci from the first wave, may be completed. If this is indeed the case, then the scenario with the construction of wave 3 or c and a decline in the pair below the 4th figure has begun to be implemented.
The main principles of my analysis:
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