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The wave analysis of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. At the moment, we observe the construction of the presumed wave 3 in 3 or c of the downward trend section. If this is indeed the case, then the decline in quotes will continue for quite some time, as the first wave of this section completed its construction around the 1.0450 mark. Therefore, the third wave of this trend section should end lower.
The market continues to slowly reduce demand for the euro, although the news background fully supports the US dollar. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.0955 mark, which equates to 61.8% according to Fibonacci, indicated the completion of the construction of wave 2 in 3 or c. Therefore, there is potential for a decrease in the pair, and it is significant.
Is there a probability of a different wave analysis? There is always one. However, if, since October 3 of last year, we have observed a new upward trend section, then the last downward wave does not fit into any structure, which cannot be. Therefore, an upward section is possible only with a significant complication of the wave analysis.
Under the pressure of statistics, sellers retreat.
The EUR/USD pair rate increased by 25 basis points on Tuesday. The corrective wave could have started yesterday, but the US retail trade report turned out to be stronger than market expectations, which prompted new purchases of the US dollar. Today, several reports immediately supported the euro. Let's consider them in more detail. In Europe today, economic expectation indices from ZEW were released. In the European Union, the index rose to 43.9 points, and in Germany - to 42.9 points, which is significantly above market expectations. I do not consider these reports important, and today, the market largely ignored them as demand for the euro decreased in the first half of the day. However, closer to the American session, demand for the dollar had already begun to decline.
The number of building permits issued in the US turned out to be below market expectations. Later, there will be a report on industrial production, but with the already published four reports, it is quite enough for the dollar to depreciate slightly today. I want to immediately note that only "slightly," as 25 basis points cannot yet be considered even a wave on a smaller scale. The market sentiment remains "bearish." The fact that the ECB is ready to start easing monetary policy in June, unlike the Fed, will continue to push the pair down. Therefore, this week, we may see a pause in the decline of the pair, but this will only be a pause, not the end of the downward wave set. I still expect a more significant decline in the EUR/USD pair.
General conclusions.
Based on the analysis of the EUR/USD, the construction of a downward wave set continues. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are completed, so in the near future, I expect the continuation of the construction of an impulse downward wave 3 in 3 or c with a significant decrease in the pair. I continue to consider sales with targets near the calculated mark of 1.0463, as the news background remains on the side of the dollar. The necessary signal for sale around the 1.0880 mark was formed (an unsuccessful attempt to break through).
On the larger wave scale, the presumed wave 2 or b, which in length was more than 61.8% according to Fibonacci from the first wave, may be completed. If this is indeed the case, then the scenario with the construction of wave 3 or c and a decrease in the pair below the 4-figure has begun to be implemented.
The main principles of my analysis:
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