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Analysis of trades and tips for trading the euro
The test of the 1.0845 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell by 15 points, and that was it. Weak statistics on manufacturing activity in Germany and other Eurozone countries increased pressure on the euro, forcing risk asset buyers to defend the levels they achieved from the strong growth recorded last Friday. Although the market remained under the control of buyers, everything now depends on the US statistics. Ahead, we have figures on the ISM manufacturing index, changes in construction spending, and total car sales. Weak data could lead to a significant rise in the euro, while only very good statistics will lead to further declines. I plan to act based on Scenarios #1 and #2 for the intraday strategy.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro at around 1.0849 (green line on the chart), aiming for growth to 1.0880. At 1.0880, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35-point movement from the entry point. An upward movement of the euro today can only be expected after news of reduced PMI activity in the US. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0824 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.0849 and 1.0880 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching the 1.0824 level (red line). The target will be 1.0798, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy the euro in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points from this level). Pressure on the pair will return if buyers fail around the daily high and strong US statistics. Important! Before selling, please ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0849 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0824 and 1.0798 can be expected.
Forex beginners should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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