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Analysis of transactions and tips on trading the Japanese yen
There were no tests of the levels I indicated in the first half of the day, as traders did not force events after yesterday's meeting of the Federal Reserve System, which went against the published statistics relating to price growth in the United States. Another batch of important statistics is expected in the afternoon today. You need to pay attention to the US producer price index, as well as the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's speech will also be interesting, so I advise you to attend it. If the US data turns out to be better than economists' forecasts, you can continue to bet on building an upward trend for the pair and buy the US dollar. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when I reach the entry point in the area of 157.40 (green line on the chart) in order to grow to the level of 157.81 (thicker green line on the chart). In the area of 157.81, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). It is possible to count on the pair's growth today in the continuation of the upward trend. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to grow from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive price tests of 157.10 at a time when the MACD indicator will be in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect an increase to the opposite levels of 157.40 and 157.81.
Sell signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after updating the level of 157.10 (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target of sellers will be the level of 156.58, where I will exit sales, as well as immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). The pressure on the pair will return in case of an unsuccessful attempt to catch on to the daily high and strong US data. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive price tests of 157.40 at a time when the MACD indicator will be in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 157.10 and 156.58.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy a trading instrument.
Thick green line is the estimated price where you can place Take profit or fix profits yourself, since further growth is unlikely above this level.
Thin red line is the entry price at which a trading instrument can be sold.
Thick red line is the estimated price where you can place Take profit or fix profits yourself, since further decline is unlikely below this level.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Novice forex traders need to make decisions about entering the market very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid falling into sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. If you decide to trade during the news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to place stop orders to avoid losing the entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management but trade in large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, following the example of the one I presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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