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For the second week in a row, the price of gold continues to rise.
![Exchange Rates 05.07.2024 analysis]()
The markets are banking on a higher likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September and another reduction in December. Amid softer macroeconomic data from the US, the dollar has weakened, which is a significant factor supporting the commodityNevertheless, the prevailing risk-related conditions can hold back any unrestrained rally of the precious metal. Traders should refrain from aggressive rates and prefer to wait for the publication of monthly US employment data, known as the NFP - non-agricultural employment report - which will affect market expectations regarding future Fed policy decisions. This, in turn, will stimulate short-term demand for the US dollar, providing new directional impetus for the precious metal, which continues to rise for the second consecutive week.From a technical perspective, the sustained break of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on Wednesday was perceived as a new stimulus for the bulls. Plus, the oscillators on the daily chart began to gain positive momentum again, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the yellow metal lies upwards. Some subsequent purchases outside the $2,369 area will confirm the constructive forecast and allow the XAU/USD pair to return to the round level of $2,400. The momentum may extend, surpassing the historical high of $2450 reached in May.On the other hand, a return to the 50-day SMA around $2338, which is a resistance point, is a buying opportunity. This is followed by support in the $2325-2315 area, and a decisive break below it will make the price of the non-yielding metal vulnerable to further weakening below the round $2300 level and testing the $2285 zone. Failure to defend these support levels will expose the 100-day SMA, currently near the $2270 area, and further declines may follow.
![Exchange Rates 05.07.2024 analysis]()
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