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The test of the price level of 1.2807 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's further upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound, especially as it remained within the downward channel formed yesterday after the speeches of American politicians. The absence of data from the UK impacted market volatility today, and the same story is likely to repeat in the second half of the day. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech will be identical to what we heard yesterday, and data on changes in wholesale inventories in the US is certainly not something that can change the market dynamics. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the realization of Scenario #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point reaches around 1.2818 (green line) to rise to the 1.2850 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.2850, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). The pound's growth today can be expected to continue the morning trend, but it is unlikely to last long. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case the price of 1.2798 is tested twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth can be expected to be at the opposite levels of 1.2818 and 1.2850.
Scenario #1: I will sell the pound today after updating the 1.2798 level (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.2764 level, where I will exit sales and open purchases immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will manifest after an unsuccessful consolidation around the daily high. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.2818 at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.2798 and 1.2764.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market must be cautious about market entry decisions. Before releasing important fundamental reports, staying out of the market is best to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, to trade successfully, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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