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Review of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen
The test of the 154.85 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move up from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point for buying dollars. However, another test of 154.85 soon followed, and by then, the MACD had risen significantly without any movement from the pair. This suggested a potential reversal and the continuation of sales following the downward trend, resulting in a drop of more than 40 points. In the second half of the day, we expect significant statistics related to the US economy. Anticipated data include the manufacturing PMI, services PMI, and composite PMI for July this year. Positive data will likely lead to more dollar purchases and yen sales, impacting the current trend. For the intraday strategy, I plan to follow scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
- Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 154.70 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 155.40 (thicker green line). At 155.40, I will exit the buys and open sales in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 points away from the level. A strong rise in the pair is unlikely today. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting its upward movement from it.
- Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price of 154.05 is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth to the target levels of 154.70 and 155.40 can be expected.
Sell Signal
- Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the level of 154.05 (red line on the chart) is broken, leading to a quick decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 153.40 level, where I will exit sales and immediately open buys in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 20-25 points away from the level. The pair will face pressure if buyers act unsuccessfully after an upward correction and weak US data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward movement from it.
- Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price of 154.70 is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the target levels of 154.05 and 153.40 can be expected.
Chart Details:
- Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick Green Line: Expected price for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick Red Line: Expected price for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is crucial to be guided by overbought and oversold areas.
Important: Beginner forex traders should be cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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Rimani 
