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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday after consolidating above the 1.2931 level. Last evening, the quotes stopped just a few points short of the 127.2% corrective level at 1.3054. This can be considered a rebound, which may indicate a potential reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a possible decline towards the 1.2931 level. The upward trend channel allows for such a correction. Consolidating the quotes above the 1.3054 level will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next Fibonacci level at 161.8% – 1.3258.
The wave pattern is clear. The last completed downward wave failed to break the low of the previous wave, while the last upward wave managed to break the previous high by just a few points. Thus, we are currently dealing with a "bullish" trend, but the waves are so large that any trend change might be detected too late. To be confident in the continuation of the "bullish" trend, a firm close above the 1.3054 level is required.
There was no significant news on Tuesday, and today traders are only awaiting the FOMC minutes. The minutes will be released late in the evening and are unlikely to trigger new bullish attacks, as they typically do not contain crucial information. However, the last meeting of the regulator might have included discussions on the need to start easing monetary policy soon. If the minutes reflect an increase in dovish sentiment within the Fed, this could give the dollar another reason to continue its decline. Nevertheless, I expect at least a slight pullback in the pair's value. A corrective wave needs to form, indicators need to be reset, divergences cleared, and Jerome Powell's speech on Friday has already been priced in by the market. I did not see strong reasons for the pair to continue rising on Monday, and there are even fewer reasons on Wednesday, in my opinion.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has risen to the 1.3044 level. A rebound from this level could indicate a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and some decline. Besides the rebound, the CCI indicator has been signaling a bearish divergence for a week, and the RSI indicator is in overbought territory, which is rare. Therefore, I would say that the likelihood of the pair declining in the coming days is high. Consolidation above the 1.3044 level will increase the chances of continued growth toward the next Fibonacci level at 76.4% – 1.3314.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the Non-commercial category of traders has become much less bullish in the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 23,477, while the number of short positions increased by 3,110. Bulls still hold a significant advantage. The gap between the number of long and short positions is nearly 50,000, with 102,000 long positions versus 55,000 short positions.
In my view, the pound still faces the prospect of declining, but COT reports suggest otherwise. Over the past three months, the number of long positions has increased from 51,000 to 102,000, while the number of short positions has decreased from 74,000 to 55,000. I believe that over time, professional players will start to offload long positions or increase short positions, as all potential buying factors for the British pound have already been priced in. However, it is important to remember that this is just an assumption. Technical analysis indicates a likely decline in the near future, but that does not mean the decline will last for several months or half a year.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:
U.S. – Release of FOMC Minutes (18:00 UTC).
On Wednesday, the economic event calendar contains only one entry. The influence of the news on market sentiment today will be very weak and only in the evening.
Forecast for GBP/USD and Trading Advice:
Selling the pair is possible today on a rebound from the 1.3044 level on the 4-hour chart with targets at 1.2931 and 1.2892. I would not consider new purchases at the moment, but a close above the 1.3044 level would open new horizons for the bulls.
Fibonacci levels are plotted between 1.2892–1.2298 on the hourly chart and between 1.4248–1.0404 on the 4-hour chart.
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