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In the past two days, the price has attempted twice to break through the resistance at 146.50, reinforced by the 23.6% Fibonacci level. The attempts were not successful. Yesterday, the US stock index S&P 500 fell by 0.89%, and this morning, Asian markets are repeating the risk-off move, with the yen acting as a risk-off tool, meaning it is being bought against the dollar. A breakthrough of the 144.30 support level would open the target range of 139.70–140.27, the low from December 2023.
In the 4-hour chart, the price has again fallen below the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator seems to be moving back below the zero line. A bearish breakout is approaching.
Two key points in the current situation are worth noting: today's inflation data from Japan showed an increase in the core CPI from 2.6% year-over-year to 2.7% year-over-year. The overall CPI remained at 2.8% year-over-year. This data has already reinforced investor expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in the fourth quarter, as reported by the Japanese press. Furthermore, the central bank governor is speaking in parliament today, where he may provide more specific details about the central bank's plans. The market may see a second wave of unwinding carry trade speculation if these expectations are confirmed. All these factors are strengthening the yen against the dollar.
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