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Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair made its first attempt to break through the support level of 144.30, but the initial attempt to consolidate below the level did not succeed. Once it consolidates below this level, the target range of 139.70-140.27 will become accessible. The Marlin oscillator is currently in the downtrend territory, suggesting the potential for a successful breakthrough of the support level in the coming days.
The challenge is that the Marlin oscillator is not trying to develop a decline despite the price decreasing. In this case, the complication of the movement looks like a false breakout (possibly with consolidation) above the nearest resistance level, which is 146.50. If this happens, the Marlin oscillator will turn down from the boundary of the growth territory—i.e., from the zero line.
In the 4-hour chart, the downward price vector has weakened with the oscillator entering the positive territory. Initially, the price moved above the 144.30 level, followed by the oscillator. However, the price must consolidate below the support level to continue the decline, and the Marlin oscillator must stay below the zero line. The emerging double convergence of the price with the Marlin oscillator does not currently support the rapid formation of a downward trend. A more extended preparation is required for such a significant move towards the 139.70-140.27 range.
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