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The price test of 146.15 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar, and I was proven right. Against the backdrop of a downward trend observed since the Asian session, it was more logical to look for entry points for selling. Thus, after the second test of 146.15, when the MACD indicator was in the overbought area, it became apparent that the dollar was likely to continue falling. All this led to a decline of more than 90 pips. Sellers responded excellently to weak U.S. manufacturing data, resulting in a significant drop in the pair. Today's decent report on the business activity index in the services sector and the composite PMI of Japan kept the pressure on the dollar and the demand for the yen, so it is best to continue trading in the development of the downward trend. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY when it reaches the entry point around 145.58, plotted by the green line on the chart, with the goal of rising to 146.68, plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 146.68, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the reverse direction from the level. Counting on a rise in the pair today is only possible within an upward correction. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 144.98 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 145.58 and 146.68.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 144.98 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 144.31, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return at any moment, since the bearish market for the dollar has not disappeared. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 145.58 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 144.98 and 144.31.
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
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