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The price test at 1.3098 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound—especially given its recent downward trend. The lack of UK data affected the pound and those willing to buy it. However, buyers will have a chance today, as considerable important labor market data will be released. Data on the number of unemployment benefit claims and the unemployment rate are undoubtedly important, but in the current conditions, the dynamics of changes in the average earnings of the population will play an important role. If the growth of British incomes continues to slow, the pound may react by falling. For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Scenario No 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when it reaches the entry point around 1.3085 (the green line on the chart) to rise to the level of 1.3132 (the thicker green line on the chart). At the 1.3132 area, I intend to exit long positions and start selling in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 30-35 pips in the reverse direction from the level). A substantial rise in the pound is expected after positive labor market data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting its ascent.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive price tests at 1.3059 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upwards. An increase to the opposite levels of 1.3085 and 1.3132 can be expected.
Scenario No 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after testing the level at 1.3059 (the red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be the level at 1.3023, where I plan to exit short positions and start buying in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips in the reverse direction from the level). The pound can be sold in continuation of the downward trend after weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its descent.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3085, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease to the opposite levels of 1.3059 and 1.3023 can be expected.
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
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