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Today marks the second consecutive day that the AUD/USD pair is gaining momentum, also noting its fourth day of positive movement.
Spot prices are currently trading above 0.6750, approximately 0.15% higher than at the beginning of the day, as investors have already priced in the results of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which will be released on Wednesday.
As the central bank's main event approaches, the U.S. dollar is consolidating its recent significant losses near its lowest level since July 2023.
An excessive rate cut of 50 basis points by the Federal Reserve is anticipated, and along with the hawkish outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia and positive sentiment in the stock markets, this is a key factor supporting the risk-sensitive Australian dollar, offering slight support to the AUD/USD pair. With the latest rally from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), spot prices have risen nearly 150 points.
Moreover, the fundamental backdrop leans in favor of dollar bears, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is upward. However, concerns about slowing economic growth in China may pose a challenge for the Australian dollar.
In fact, a series of negative Chinese data released over the weekend indicated greater economic weakness and challenges in achieving the official GDP growth target of around 5% for 2024. In turn, this could limit the growth of the Australian dollar.
Traders may also prefer to wait for additional signals regarding the Fed's rate-cutting path, necessitating some caution before opening new long positions in the AUD/USD pair.
The upcoming release of U.S. monthly retail sales data, along with U.S. bond yields and broader risk sentiment, will stimulate demand for the U.S. dollar, providing some momentum to the currency pair. Meanwhile, the market's reaction to U.S. macroeconomic data is likely to be limited, as attention remains focused on the crucial monetary policy decision from the Fed.
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