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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen
The price test at 140.57 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the dollar in continuation of the recent downward trend. However, as you can see on the chart, the downward movement did not materialize, leading to a loss. Then, the price test at 140.91 occurred during the pair's rise. This coincided with the MACD beginning its upward movement from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for buying the dollar, and the pair increased by more than 80 pips.
Today's strong figures regarding changes in machinery and equipment orders and Japan's trade balance helped the yen regain some positions against the U.S. dollar. However, caution is required today, as everything now depends on the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, which will be announced late in the evening. For this reason, I don't believe in a strong and decisive movement before the meeting results are announced. I will mostly trade within the horizontal channel, anticipating a more significant dollar movement downwards in line with the medium-term downtrend. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point around 141.77 (green line on the chart) is reached, aiming for a rise to 142.31 (thicker green line on the chart). Around the 142.31 level, I plan to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips back from the level. The pair's rise today can only be expected within the correction framework. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 141.43 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. You can expect growth toward the opposite levels of 141.77 and 142.31.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 141.43 (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 140.93 level, where I plan to exit the short positions and immediately open longs in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips back from the level. Pressure on the pair can return anytime, as the bearish market for the dollar hasn't disappeared. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 141.77 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. You can expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 141.43 and 140.93.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
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