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The test of the 1.3354 level occurred as the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a suitable entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by over 30 points, reaching the target level of 1.3375, where I planned to sell the pound on a retracement. However, the downward movement did not materialize, so I did not hold my short positions for long. Whether the pound continues to rise will depend on the U.S. GDP data for the second quarter and the weekly jobless claims figures. Strong statistics are likely to cause a correction in the pair and strengthen the dollar. However, pay attention to the speeches by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. A dovish tone from these policymakers could restore demand for risk assets, including the pound. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point around 1.3386 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the 1.3407 level (thicker green line on the chart). At the 1.3407 mark, I will close my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from this level. A rise in the pound is anticipated today if U.S. statistics are weak. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and has just begun its upward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3369 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This setup will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward the resistance levels of 1.3386 and 1.3407 is expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a breakout below the 1.3369 level (red line on the chart), which is expected to cause a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3349 level, where I will close my short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from this level. Sellers are likely to become active if U.S. statistics are strong. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3386 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the levels of 1.3369 and 1.3349 is expected.
Beginner forex traders should be cautious when making market entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply money management and trade with large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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