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The test of the 145.04 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. The test of the 144.62 level was also unproductive, as it occurred when the MACD had already moved significantly below the zero mark, preventing entry into the market. The future direction of the pair will depend on the revised U.S. GDP figures for the second quarter and the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. If there are no hints of an interest rate cut by half a percentage point, the pair may resume its upward movement. Otherwise, pressure on the dollar will increase further. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to follow Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 144.46 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the 145.09 level (thicker green line on the chart). At the 145.09 level, I will close my long positions and initiate short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from this level. A rise in the pair is expected today if the U.S. data is strong. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its upward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 144.06 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This setup will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise toward the resistance levels of 144.46 and 145.09 is expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakout below the 144.06 level (red line on the chart), which is expected to cause a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 143.45 level, where I will close my short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from this level. Pressure on the pair will return if there is no buying activity around the daily high. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 144.46 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the levels of 144.06 and 143.45 is expected.
Beginner forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply money management and trade with large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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