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The GBP/USD pair also showed an upward movement on Thursday. Let's recall that the pair's quotes sharply fell on Wednesday despite no reason. We then mentioned that this decline meant nothing and that the pair could resume its growth the next day. And that's precisely what happened. The British pound managed to appreciate again despite strong macroeconomic data from the US, which indicated the excellent state of the American economy. Later, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave a speech but didn't talk about monetary policy. So, once again, we are left wondering why the dollar fell. The economic data was stronger than expected, and Powell didn't say anything about rates or monetary policy prospects. However, as we can see, the market only needs an excuse to sell the US currency.
Two trading signals were formed in the 5-minute time frame on Thursday. First, the pair consolidated above the 1.3365 level, and an hour later, it bounced very inaccurately from this level from above. The inaccuracy of the signal can be explained by the fact that important data was being published in the US at the time of the bounce. However, novice traders could have entered long positions based on these two signals, especially since the pound tends to rise much more often than it falls. Within a couple of hours, the price reached the nearest resistance area of 1.3417-1.3440, where profits could be taken.
In the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD pair is moving north again despite no new reasons. There are no issues with volatility at the moment, so traders can at least open trades within each day rather than just watch non-existent movements. However, there are still significant problems with the logic of these movements. We continue to see the pair rising even when all factors favor the dollar. Corrections are minimal or absent altogether.
On Friday, the British pound may continue to move upward, as it doesn't need any factors. Therefore, trading must again be based on the nearest levels and areas.
In the 5-minute time frame, trading can be conducted based on the following levels: 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102-1.3107, 1.3145-1.3167, 1.3225, 1.3272, 1.3365, 1.3428-1.3440, 1.3488, 1.3537. No significant events are scheduled in the UK on Friday, but relatively important reports, such as the PCE and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, will be released in the US. These data may trigger a moderate market reaction but are unlikely to support the dollar.
1) Signal Strength: The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (bounce or break through a level). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2) False Signals: If two or more trades are opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3) Flat Market: In a flat market, any pair can generate numerous false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4) Trading Timeframe: Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which they should be closed manually.
5) MACD Indicator Signals: In the hourly time frame, it is preferable to trade based on MACD signals only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
6) Close Levels: If two levels are located too close to each other (between 5 and 20 pips), they should be considered as a single support or resistance area.
7) Stop Loss: Once the price moves 15 pips in the intended direction, a Stop Loss should be set at the breakeven point.
Support and Resistance Price Levels: These levels serve as targets when opening buy or sell positions. They can also be used as points to set Take Profit levels.
Red Lines: These represent channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): The histogram and signal line serve as an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of trading signals.
Important Speeches and Reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, trading should be done with maximum caution during their release, or you may choose to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
For Beginners Trading on the Forex Market: It's essential to remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management is key to achieving long-term success in trading.
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