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Through hardships to the stars! Bitcoin is enjoying its investment luster again thanks to worldwide monetary policy easing, rising global risk appetite, and hopes for improved crypto regulation in the US. Regardless of who comes to power—Kamala Harris or Donald Trump—digital assets will find support from the future president. This optimism is fueling the BTC/USD rally.
Bitcoin opened in September in a subdued mood. Historically, over the past decade, it has fallen by an average of 5.9% during the first month of autumn. However, there are exceptions to every rule. In 2024, Bitcoin gained about 10%, thanks to the aggressive start of the Federal Reserve's monetary expansion and support from both US presidential candidates. Kamala Harris promises to increase investment in the crypto industry and artificial intelligence, while Donald Trump plans to make America the crypto capital of the world.
Bitcoin's performance in September
The lower the interest rates, the cheaper the money, and the more liquidity there is in the financial system. An increase in the supply of fiat currencies reduces their purchasing power and drives investors to seek alternatives. The best of these are assets whose supply is limited by nature. It's no surprise that gold is hitting historical highs against this backdrop, and Bitcoin has surged to its highest levels since July.
The Federal Reserve has aggressively begun a cycle of monetary easing. The People's Bank of China has launched its largest-scale stimulus since the pandemic. The weakness of the Eurozone's economy is even prompting ECB hawks to consider rate cuts. Widespread monetary policy easing by major central banks creates a favorable environment for risky assets. Moreover, US stocks have surged thanks to the "Goldilocks" scenario—where GDP is slowing but still growing above trend, and inflation is steadily approaching the 2% target.
Meanwhile, the increase in Bitcoin's correlation with US stock indices to the highest levels since 2022 cements investors' intent to buy cryptocurrency. Unlike the S&P 500 and gold, Bitcoin is far from its historical peaks, meaning it doesn't resemble a bubble that could burst at any moment.
S&P 500 and cryptocurrency correlation trends
Thus, the combination of widespread monetary expansion, diminished trust in fiat currencies, growing global risk appetite, and bipartisan support for the crypto industry are giving Bitcoin a green light. But can it seize the opportunity? The answer to this question will largely depend on US stock indices, whose correlation with digital assets is rapidly increasing.
Technically, on the daily BTC/USD chart, a broadening wedge pattern has fully formed. We expect a pullback to the 4-5 wave, after which there will be an opportunity to increase the previously opened long positions at 55,420–55,720, 58,000, and 59,000.
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