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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.1177 price occurred when the MACD indicator was beginning to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair moved up by about 20 pips, which was the end. We fell slightly short of the target level of 1.1207. I did not sell at the price of 1.1159 since, when testing this level, the MACD had not yet moved into the sell zone. Data on the Italian Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Spanish CPI, the German Unemployment Rate, and the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index didn't help the euro much, unlike the US inflation figures, which indicated a slowdown in growth, prompting an increase in long positions that didn't continue towards the end of the week. Today, we have data releases on the German CPI and the Italian CPI, which are also unlikely to cause a significant spike in volatility, so it's best to stay within the horizontal channel. If it occurs, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech will unlikely change the overall market sentiment significantly. Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mostly rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches the 1.1174 area (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the 1.1199 level. At the 1.1199 point, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 pips movement from the entry point. Consider buying the euro today in the first half of the day only if strong data comes from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1155 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.1174 and 1.1199 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1155 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1130 level, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today in the event of an unsuccessful attempt to rise beyond the daily high. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1174 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1155 and 1.1130 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: The anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: The anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market should be cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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