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The yen is consolidating under the 149.38 level, indicating a potential upward breakout. However, the divergence with the Marlin oscillator persists, which neutralizes the upward potential of the consolidation.
We have viewed the rise since September 16 as a correction of the decline initiated by the Bank of Japan's interventions. Even if the price breaks above 149.38 and reaches 150.83, this will only represent a 50% retracement. Only a consolidation above 150.83 will open the path to 153.60. For now, we expect the price to reverse at the resistance level of 149.38.
On the four-hour chart, the price is being compressed into a wedge formation, created by the 149.38 level and the Kijun-Sen line (also known as the MACD line). The Marlin oscillator, now in negative territory, suggests a downward price breakout. Confirmation will be given if the price consolidates below the MACD line, under the 148.74 level.
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