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Once again, the major global currencies remain inactive following changes in central bank rates. The euro traded slightly above its level before the European Central Bank's rate cut last Thursday. What needs to happen in the world for a sustained trend to begin in the currency sector (in our context – a strengthening of the dollar)? It seems that a global crisis, typically marked by a stock market downturn, is the key factor. We believe that investors are focused on and awaiting such an event. The first anticipated date for this is the U.S. election day.
What would it take for the euro to resume its rise and reach a new high since September? It seems likely that a win by Harris could at least temporarily support a return to risk appetite.
For now, the euro intends to break above the 1.0882 resistance, stabilize above this level, and settle within the comfortable range of 1.0882-1.0950, as it did from August 5-12. The Marlin oscillator is also attempting to approach the zero line, aiming for a neutral status to be ready for any market moves.
The price is struggling with the resistance at the MACD line on the four-hour chart. Marlin has moved into positive territory, helping the price to overcome the indicator line and the linear resistance at 1.0882.
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