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On Tuesday, the British pound gained 40 pips, breaking above the challenging resistance level at 1.2994, and now heads quickly toward the target of 1.3080. It's likely that by the U.S. elections, it could reach the 1.3080–1.3141 range. Further movement, however, will entirely depend on the plans of big players prepared for this event.
Unfortunately, these plans are unknown to us, but we estimate a 60% probability that dollar buyers—those acting on expectations fueled by media support—may be squeezed out. The rise could extend to 1.3220 or possibly 1.3360, approaching levels near the embedded lines of the green ascending price channel. Once this move is completed, a medium- to long-term trend favoring dollar strengthening will likely begin.
On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated above both indicator lines and the 1.2994 resistance level, continuing its upward movement with support from a rising Marlin oscillator. We expect the price to reach 1.3080.
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