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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test at the 153.29 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential—especially given the recent upward trend. For this reason, I refrained from selling the dollar. No other entry points emerged. Today, Japan's Consumer Confidence Index data is expected, and a weak report, as forecasted, could further support the dollar. If the data turns out to be strong, the pair may decline further, providing buyers an opportunity similar to yesterday. I'll focus on scenarios #1 and #2 for intraday strategy.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 153.47 (green line on the chart) with a target of reaching 154.25 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 154.25, I will exit buy positions and open short positions (expecting a 30-35 pip move in the opposite direction). Further growth of the pair is likely, but buying on pullbacks is ideal. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 153.10 level when the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and could lead to an upward reversal. An increase toward the 153.47 and 154.25 levels is expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaks below the 153.10 level (red line on the chart), leading to a swift decline. The key target for sellers will be 152.46, where I plan to exit sell positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25 pip move in the opposite direction). Selling pressure on the pair may return if there's weak activity near the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below zero and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 153.47 level when the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and could lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the 153.10 and 152.46 levels is expected.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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