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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday dropped nearly to the level of 1.2931, though it didn't reach it fully. Therefore, no new buy signal was formed. Over the past two weeks, the pound has been trading between 1.2931 and 1.3054, establishing a sideways range. For the dollar to strengthen, strong U.S. data will be needed; for the pound to rise, weaker U.S. data will be necessary. Perhaps the market will see something along these lines on Thursday and Friday.
The wave structure raises no questions. The last completed upward wave (September 26) did not surpass the high of the previous wave, while the currently forming downward wave (in progress for 25 days) easily broke the low of the prior wave, which was at 1.3311. Thus, the "bullish" trend is considered complete, and a "bearish" trend is forming. From the 1.2931 level, an upward corrective wave is possible, but graphical signals alone aren't enough. Bulls will need to actively engage, though this is currently limited.
On Wednesday, there was no significant news from the UK. In the U.S., important GDP and labor market reports were released. In my opinion, the dollar can interpret both reports favorably. The economy showed strong growth again (though slightly below traders' expectations), and private sector employment reached 233,000, against a forecast of 115,000. The pound was fortunate enough yesterday to avoid closing below the support zone at 1.2892–1.2931. Bulls managed to keep the pound afloat, but the sideways movement continues. Now, it will be challenging for traders to move the pair out of this range. Today, there won't be any notable events in the UK. In the U.S., reports may not be strong enough to push the pound out of the 1.2931–1.3054 zone. I believe the sideways trend will persist today.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated below the corrective level of 1.3044, suggesting a further decline toward the next corrective level at 61.8% – 1.2745. However, the "bullish" divergence on the CCI indicator enabled a reversal in favor of the pound and a return to this level. A rebound from 1.2745 will again favor the dollar and support a continuation of the decline toward the 61.8% corrective level at 1.2745.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment among "Non-commercial" traders became less bullish over the last reporting week, though it remains overall positive. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 11,320, while short positions increased by 94 units. Bulls still hold a significant advantage, with a difference of 74,000 positions: 140,000 long versus 66,000 short.
In my view, the pound still has room to decline, though the COT report currently indicates otherwise. Over the past three months, long positions increased from 135,000 to 140,000, and short positions from 50,000 to 66,000. I believe that over time, professional players will reduce long positions or increase short positions (as seen with the euro), as most buying factors for the pound have already played out. Technical analysis suggests this process may begin soon (or may have already started, based on the waves).
News Calendar for the U.S. and UK:
On Thursday, the economic events calendar includes three interesting but not highly critical releases. The impact of these events on market sentiment for the rest of the day will be moderate.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
Selling the pair is possible upon a rebound from the 1.3054 level on the hourly chart or from the 1.3044 level on the 4-hour chart, targeting 1.2931. Buying the pound is feasible from the 1.2892–1.2931 zone, targeting 1.3054, though bulls are currently very weak.
Fibonacci levels are built from 1.2892–1.2298 on the hourly chart and from 1.4248–1.0404 on the 4-hour chart.
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