04.11.202405:01 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on November 4, 2024

This morning, global currencies are attempting to return to their levels from Friday before the release of U.S. employment data. Right after the data was published, the dollar weakened due to weak figures, but market participants quickly realized that these figures were likely inaccurate due to hurricanes and strikes. Second, they could be quickly offset by strong data in the following month (November), as recovery efforts and strike resolutions typically create more jobs, as has happened in similar situations before.

The opening gap in the market and the lack of testing of nearby target levels (in both directions) suggest intense volatility immediately after the presidential election. The Marlin oscillator's move into the positive area indicates an initial upward move. This movement may be limited to the target range of 1.0935/50, or it could extend further to the second target of 1.0990-1.1010—an area of 50.0% correction and the target level of 1.1010, which is also near the MACD line. After that, a potential reversal back down to support at 1.0777 or 1.0724 is likely.

According to the latest poll over the weekend, Harris is leading Trump with an electoral vote count of 276/251. Eleven undecided votes remain, but Harris would still be the victor even if they shift to Trump.

This significantly complicates the situation. An initial false move downward to cover the gap around 1.0724 could be followed by a substantial rise, supported by an expected dovish Federal Reserve meeting on Thursday (with a 0.25% rate cut and corresponding rhetoric). Such a move would likely push out those traders who bought the dollar expecting a Trump victory.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is moving toward the upper boundary of its ascending channel. The price has risen above the 1.0882 resistance level. We currently expect an increase into the target range of 1.0935/50.