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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test of the 152.54 level occurred when the MACD indicator started moving down from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point for selling the pair, especially after weak U.S. labor market data. As a result, the dollar dropped by 60 pips to the target level of 151.91. I immediately bought on the rebound from there, as I explained in detail in my forecast. Ultimately, the pair rose by another 100 pips. The weak labor data pressured the dollar, but this pressure lasted only for a short period since few doubted that the labor market would show strong results under the conditions of strikes and hurricanes in October. As the pressure on the dollar remains, trading can proceed based on expectations of a continued USD/JPY correction. I will focus on implementing scenarios №1 and №2 for the intraday strategy.
Buy Signal
Scenario №1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 152.38 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the 153.06 level (thicker green line on the chart). I plan to exit purchases at 153.06 and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from this level). The pair's growth is possible, but it is best to buy on corrections. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.
Scenario №2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 151.76 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 152.38 and 153.06 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario №1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after breaking the 151.76 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 151.09 level, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). The pair will face renewed pressure in case of an unsuccessful correction in the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario №2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 152.38 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 151.76 and 151.09 can be expected.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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