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On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair also traded higher, only to crash overnight into Wednesday. As we mentioned, this drop was impossible to predict unless you're a Nostradamus or a clairvoyant. The market began reacting to interim results of the U.S. presidential election, which were impossible to predict in advance. So, this 170-pip drop was something to watch rather than act on. At this point, there's no real sense in discussing the technical or macroeconomic outlook, as the price could continue moving unpredictably until the end of the week. The market has already seen a 200-pip move without the final election results.
Additionally, tomorrow brings the Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings, which may also deliver surprises. Therefore, we won't attempt to forecast how GBP/USD will behave soon. We only want to remind you that the overall trend remains downward.
On the 5-minute time frame on Tuesday, one signal could be acted upon before the chaos began. During the U.S. session, the price broke through the 1.2980-1.2993 area and rose to the nearest resistance level at 1.3043. This trade could have been closed in the evening. A bounce from this level occurred overnight, but it's unlikely anyone could have predicted the subsequent 170-pip drop.
In the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD pair attempted to start a correction after a month of declines, but it didn't succeed. We fully support the pound's decline in the medium term, considering this the only logical path. The pound might attempt another correction soon but will need macroeconomic and statistical support to sustain it. Last week showed little of this support; even when it exists, the pound struggles to rise.
On Wednesday, novice traders should be ready for any outcome. The price could continue to move wildly in either direction.
On the 5-minute time frame, trading levels are currently 1.2791-1.2798, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102-1.3107, 1.3145-1.3167, 1.3225, 1.3272, and 1.3365. No significant events are scheduled for Wednesday in the UK or the U.S., but the pair could still experience volatile movement throughout the day as information about the U.S. election results continues to emerge.
Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around these areas.
Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that indicate the current trend and the preferred trading direction.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): Histogram and signal line—an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Major speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, it's advised to trade cautiously or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp price reversals against prior movements.
Beginners trading on the forex market should remember that not every trade will be profitable. A clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in long-term trading.
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