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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The test of the 1.2880 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark. This confirmed the correct entry point for selling the pound and resulted in a drop of over 40 pips, though it didn't quite reach the target level. Donald Trump is now the U.S. President, which has been interpreted as a boost for the dollar. Pressure on the pound is likely to persist, especially as the Bank of England is expected to lower its key interest rate today and adopt a more dovish stance for the future. The Bank of England Monetary Policy Report and Governor Andrew Bailey's speech will be the focus for traders. A dovish stance would weaken the pound and lead to another wave of dollar strengthening. I plan to focus on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 for intraday strategy.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point at 1.2941 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to the level of 1.2983 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.2983, I plan to exit the buy trades and open sell positions, expecting a 30-35 pip pullback. Expecting a significant rise in the pound today is unlikely, particularly after the BoE meeting. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2911 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.2941 and 1.2983.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking below the 1.2911 level (red line on the chart), likely leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.2862 level, where I plan to exit the sell trades and immediately open buy positions (expecting a 20-25-pip rebound from the level). Further pound selling is possible as part of the new downward trend. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2941 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. Declines can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.2911 and 1.2862.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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