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It can be confidently stated that the Federal Reserve's decision to lower its refinancing rate from 5.00% to 4.75% contributed to the weakening of the U.S. dollar. However, this was likely just a trigger for a rebound following the dollar's significant surge, driven by the results of the U.S. elections. The market was already anticipating such a decision from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
What carries more weight is the subsequent press conference, during which Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at the possibility of maintaining interest rates at their current level in December. The prevailing expectation had been that rates would be reduced again this year, bringing them down to 4.50%. However, Powell's comments suggest that this outlook could change depending on labor market dynamics. While there are concerns about the labor market, the Fed may still need to continue easing its monetary policy. Nevertheless, the mere possibility of a pause in rate cuts was not previously considered.
Thus, the outcomes of yesterday's meeting have added another factor supporting the dollar's long-term strength. In other words, yesterday's dollar's weakness should be considered a temporary rebound.
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