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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Pound
The test of the 1.2959 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair moved downward toward the target level of 1.2931, though it fell short by just a couple of points. The lack of UK data limited the pair's downward potential, particularly following yesterday's significant upward movement fueled by market optimism.
In the second half of the day, there is no U.S. data likely to significantly shift the market. Only a significant discrepancy between the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations is likely to spark volatility. FOMC member Michelle Bowman is unlikely to add anything new to what Jerome Powell already stated yesterday. For intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
- Scenario 1: Today, consider buying the pound when the price reaches 1.2971 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3014 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3014, I plan to exit the market and open short positions, anticipating a 30-35 point downward move. A continuation of yesterday's bullish trend may support the pound today, but weak U.S. data will be necessary.Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.
- Scenario 2: Buying the pound is also an option if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2943 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth can be expected toward the target levels of 1.2971 and 1.3014.
Sell Signal
- Scenario 1: I plan to sell the pound after the 1.2943 level is updated (red line on the chart), leading to a quick drop in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 1.2905, where I plan to exit sales and open buy positions, anticipating a 20-25 point upward move. Sellers are likely to reassert themselves if strong U.S. data is released.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.
- Scenario 2: Selling the pound is also an option if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2971 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline can be expected toward the target levels of 1.2943 and 1.2905.
What's on the Chart?
- Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick green line: Projected price for setting Take Profit or securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick red line: Projected price for setting Take Profit or securing profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, consider the MACD's overbought and oversold zones.
Important for Beginner Forex TradersBeginner traders should exercise caution when entering the market, particularly before major fundamental reports. If trading during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to limit losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you fail to practice proper money management or trade with large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions often lead to losses for intraday traders.
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Rimani 
