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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen
The test of the 152.70 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair fell to the target level of 152.17, yielding about 60 points in profit.
Later in the day, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and inflation expectations will be released. Weak U.S. statistics are likely to increase selling pressure on the dollar during the session. Conversely, strong data could lead to a minor correction in the pair by the end of the week. For intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
- Scenario 1: Consider buying USD/JPY when the price reaches 152.57 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 153.25 (thicker green line on the chart). At 153.25, I plan to close long positions and open short positions, expecting a 30-35 point downward move. Strong U.S. data will be required for the pair to continue its upward trend today.Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.
- Scenario 2: Buying USD/JPY is also an option if there are two consecutive tests of the 152.13 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth can be expected toward the target levels of 152.57 and 153.25.
Sell Signal
- Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 152.13 level is updated (red line on the chart), leading to a quick drop in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 151.49, where I plan to close short positions and open long positions, aiming for a 20-25 point upward move. Selling pressure on the dollar is likely to return if U.S. statistics are weak.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.
- Scenario 2: Selling USD/JPY is also an option if there are two consecutive tests of the 152.57 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline can be expected toward the target levels of 152.13 and 151.49.
What's on the Chart?
- Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick green line: Projected price for setting Take Profit or securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick red line: Projected price for setting Take Profit or securing profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, consider the MACD's overbought and oversold zones.
Important for Beginner Forex TradersBeginner traders should exercise caution when entering the market, particularly before major fundamental reports. If trading during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to limit losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you fail to practice proper money management or trade with large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions often lead to losses for intraday traders.
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Rimani 
