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On Friday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the resistance zone of 1.0781–1.0797 and began a new downward movement. Within less than a day, the bears pushed the pair to the Fibonacci retracement level of 261.8% at 1.0662. A rebound from this level could support the euro and prompt a moderate recovery. However, consolidation below this level increases the likelihood of further declines toward the Fibonacci level of 323.6% at 1.0532.
The wave structure is straightforward and leaves no room for doubt. The last completed upward wave failed to surpass the peak of the previous wave, while the recent downward wave easily broke through the previous low. This confirms the ongoing formation of a bearish trend.
The corrective wave appears complete, and bulls have lost all market initiative. Regaining control would require significant effort, which appears improbable in the near term.
Despite a weak fundamental background on Friday, bears maintained momentum. After the U.S. election results and Federal Reserve meeting, bearish sentiment persisted. The bearish trend has been in place for two months, providing ample support for the dollar's growth and the euro's continued decline.
Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index exceeded trader expectations, offering further support to the bears. While the recent U.S. labor market report was weak, market expectations for the next one to two years remain pivotal.
Previously, the market anticipated Federal Reserve easing, but attention has shifted to potential easing from the ECB and the Bank of England. Meanwhile, the potential for higher U.S. inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise rates, further supporting the dollar. In this context, the EUR/USD pair is likely to continue its downward trajectory.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, consolidating below the 76.4% corrective level at 1.0747. This paves the way for further declines toward the next corrective level of 100.0% at 1.0603.
The CCI indicator is signaling a potential bullish divergence, which may indicate a short-term recovery. However, recent bullish divergences have failed to yield significant upward movements. For now, the technical picture does not justify a sustained euro rally.
In the latest reporting week, speculators opened 587 long positions and closed 28,064 short positions. The Non-commercial group's sentiment has shifted to bearish. Speculators now hold 160,000 long positions compared to 181,000 short positions.
For eight consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing euro holdings. This likely signals the start of a bearish trend or a significant global correction. The primary factor driving previous dollar weakness—expectations of Federal Reserve easing—has been fully priced in. As a result, the dollar remains well-supported, and further growth appears likely.
The economic calendar for November 11 contains no significant events. Market sentiment is unlikely to be influenced by news today.
Selling opportunities emerged after a rebound from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.0662, which has been achieved. Consolidation below this level allows traders to maintain short positions targeting 1.0532.
Buying opportunities may arise from a rebound at 1.0662. However, given the current weakness of the bulls, conservative targets are advisable.
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