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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test of the price level at 154.22 coincided with the MACD indicator being significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I refrained from buying the dollar. However, the short positions at the bounce from 154.90, which I mentioned in my forecast for the second half of the day, resulted in a correction of over 40 pips, allowing for some market gains. Today's positive data on the growth of the producer price index for Japanese corporate goods had little effect on the forex market. This suggests that the dominance of the U.S. dollar over the Japanese yen is likely to continue. If possible, I plan to focus on strengthening the dollar, entering long positions during corrections, and at lower levels. My intraday strategy will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1:
I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches the entry point at 155.33 (green line on the chart) with a target of 155.94 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 155.94, I will exit long positions and open short positions, expecting a 30-35 pip movement in the opposite direction. Buying is best done during corrections. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario 2:
I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 154.79 level, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. The target levels for growth are 155.33 and 155.94.
Scenario 1:
I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking below 154.79 (red line on the chart), which will likely trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 154.17, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions (expecting a 20-25 pip movement in the opposite direction). It's unlikely that the pair will face significant selling pressure in the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario 2:
I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 155.33 level, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. The target levels for decline are 154.79 and 154.17.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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