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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 261.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0662 and continued its decline towards the 323.6% Fibonacci level at 1.0532. Bullish traders remain on the defensive, waiting for an opportune moment to stage even a minor counterattack.
The wave structure is clear and straightforward. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the new downward wave easily broke the last low. This confirms the continuation of the bearish trend. The corrective wave appears to have ended. Bulls have completely lost market initiative, and it would require significant effort to regain it—an unlikely scenario in the near future. To break the current trend, the pair would need to rise above 1.0800.
Tuesday's fundamental data was notably sparse. The only significant release was Germany's October inflation, which rose to 2%, though this was already known two weeks ago from the preliminary estimate. Traders had no reason to react to this report. Later in the day, the ZEW Economic Sentiment indices were released. Germany's index dropped from 13.1 to 7.4, and the EU's fell from 20.1 to 12.5. Both results were below expectations.
Traders continue to gradually sell the euro and buy the dollar, influenced by several significant factors: Trump's victory in the US election, the Eurozone's economic weakness, the ECB-Fed interest rate differential, and the shift to bearish market sentiment.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair fell to the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.0603. The CCI indicator shows a bullish divergence, suggesting a potential rise in the pair. However, we've seen numerous bullish divergences recently, none of which resulted in significant growth. There appear to be no compelling factors supporting a substantial euro rally at this time. A rebound from 1.0603 might temporarily halt the euro's decline.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
During the latest reporting week, speculators opened 587 long positions and closed 28,064 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category turned bearish. Institutional traders now hold 160,000 long positions and 181,000 short positions.
For eight consecutive weeks, institutional traders have been offloading the euro. In my view, this signals a new bearish trend or at least a strong global correction. The key driver of the dollar's decline—expectations of Fed policy easing—has been fully priced in. There is no longer a compelling reason for the market to abandon the dollar. While new reasons may emerge over time, the dollar's continued strength remains more likely. Technical analysis also indicates the start of a long-term bearish trend. I anticipate a prolonged decline in the EUR/USD pair. The latest COT data does not indicate a shift to a bullish trend.
Economic Calendar for the US and Eurozone
On November 13, the economic calendar includes only one significant entry. The US inflation report could strongly influence market sentiment, particularly in the later trading hours.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading TipsSelling opportunities were valid following a rebound from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.0662. This target was reached. A close below this level allowed traders to remain in sales, with further targets at 1.0603 and 1.0532. The first target has been achieved. Buying opportunities could be considered on a rebound from 1.0603, but with conservative profit targets. Bulls are currently extremely weak.
Fibonacci Levels
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