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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.0551 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential—especially in such a bearish market and given the absence of significant statistics. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. Shortly after, the MACD was in the overbought area during another test of 1.0551, triggering Scenario #2 for selling. However, the pair did not experience a significant drop. In the second half of the day, the only expected events are the NAHB housing market index and a speech by FOMC member Austin D. Goolsbee, neither of which are likely to be impactful for traders. U.S. policymakers, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, have already spoken extensively in recent weeks, so it's unlikely that anything new will be revealed. Under these circumstances, trading within the channel remains the most prudent strategy. For intraday trading, I will prioritize implementing Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
- Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches 1.0564 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.0605. At 1.0605, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 point move from the entry point. Strong growth in the euro is unlikely today. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to move upward.
- Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0529 level, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and likely lead to a reversal. Targets are set at 1.0564 and 1.0605.
Sell Signal
- Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro when the price reaches 1.0529 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.0495, where I will exit and buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 point upward move. Pressure on the pair is expected to return within this bearish market. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and starting to decline.
- Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0564 level, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and likely lead to a reversal downward. Targets are set at 1.0529 and 1.0495.
What's on the Chart
- Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick Green Line: Anticipated price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
- Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick Red Line: Anticipated price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: Overbought and oversold zones should guide market entries.
Important Notes for Beginner Traders
Beginner traders should be cautious when entering the market. Avoid trading during the release of major fundamental reports to minimize the risk of getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.
Successful trading requires a clear and structured trading plan, such as the one provided above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market movements are typically a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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Rimani 
