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The test of the 154.34 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning its downward movement from the zero mark, confirming it as a valid point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair fell by 30 pips but failed to reach the target level. Buy signals at 154.64 were ignored since the MACD was far from the zero mark at the time of testing. Today's news about the rise in Japan's Consumer Price Index temporarily strengthened the yen, increasing expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. However, the strong US dollar continues to attract demand amid the complex geopolitical landscape.
In the context of rising prices in Japan, a key question remains: how will the BOJ choose to act? Investors are closely monitoring its next steps, looking for signs of potential monetary policy tightening, which could further drive yen purchases and dollar declines. Sustained inflation growth could trigger a shift in interest rate policy, resulting in further fluctuations for the yen in the currency market. However, strengthening the yen could negatively impact Japan's export-oriented companies, which form a significant part of its economy.
Despite this, it's advisable not to rush into selling. Amid global uncertainty, the US dollar retains its appeal as a "safe haven" currency. Investors' desire to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical conflicts and economic instability continues to support its position. It's important to understand that the balance between yen demand and the strong dollar will determine market dynamics in the coming months. For intraday strategies, I will focus on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2, as described below.
Scenario 1:
Plan to buy USD/JPY today at the 155.04 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 155.40 (thicker green line). Exit purchases at 155.40 and consider opening sales in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip movement from the level. Pair growth can be expected, but buying during corrections is better. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning its upward movement.
Scenario 2:
Also, plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 154.73 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and may trigger an upward market reversal. Expect growth to the opposite levels of 155.04 and 155.40.
Scenario 1:
The plan is to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking below the 154.73 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a quick pair decline. The key target for sellers will be 154.25, where I plan to exit sales and consider immediate purchases in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pip movement from the level. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.
Scenario 2:
Also, plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 155.04 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and may trigger a downward market reversal. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 154.73 and 154.25.
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