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The test of the 154.55 price level coincided with when the MACD indicator started moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 40 pips but did not quite reach the target level. News about the new U.S. Treasury Secretary helped the yen regain some swap positions against the dollar. However, as shown on the chart, the bulls' advantage gradually dissipates.
Weak data on Japan's Leading Economic Indicators Index has recently become a significant concern among analysts and investors. The index, which predicts economic activity, once again reflected negative trends in the Japanese economy, putting pressure on the yen. Market participants are revising their growth forecasts for the country, which adds to the uncertainty. A decline in the index may signal a slowdown in consumer spending and manufacturing activity.
Given the current data, the Bank of Japan might be forced to reconsider its monetary policy to support economic growth. However, under pressure from political elites, the central bank may find it increasingly difficult to avoid raising interest rates for much longer.
I will focus primarily on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 for today's trading strategy.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 154.55 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the 155.08 level (thicker green line on the chart). Near 155.08, I plan to exit the purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 pips in the opposite direction from this level). A rise in the pair can be anticipated, but it's best to buy during pullbacks. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 154.13 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 154.55 and 155.08 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 154.13 level (red line on the chart) is breached, likely leading to a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 153.67, where I plan to exit the sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair may persist during the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 154.55 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 154.13 and 153.67 can be expected.
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