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The price test of 154.36 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair fell by 50 pips to the target level of 153.87. Buying from that point on a rebound also allowed a profit of about 30 pips from the market.
Today's data on the Services Price Index in Japan, driven by increased demand and limited supply, had a noticeable impact on the Japanese economy. This underscores an improvement in the domestic market and indicates a potential rise in inflation, which could form the basis for future monetary policy—specifically, raising interest rates. Considering these changes, the Bank of Japan may review its current quantitative easing measures, which could strengthen the yen and enhance the appeal of Japanese assets for investors. On the other hand, global economic conditions remain uncertain, which will continue to influence currency rates.
The current dynamics of USD/JPY reflect a balance between Japan's internal economic factors and international policy. Investors will closely monitor new consumer price data and reports that may pave the way for a more sustainable trend in the pair. In the medium term, bullish sentiment persists, so abandoning USD/JPY purchases is not advisable. I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2 regarding intraday strategies.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 154.07 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to the level of 155.08 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 155.08, I plan to exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Growth of the pair can be anticipated, but it is best to buy during corrections. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price of 153.54 is tested twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 154.07 and 155.08 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the level of 153.54 (red line on the chart) is broken, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 152.75, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair may persist in the first half of the day. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 154.07, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 153.54 and 152.75 can be expected.
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