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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.0497 level occurred as the MACD indicator began rising from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 30 points, reaching the target level of 1.0532.
In the second half of the day, a series of economic reports will be released, but the minutes from the Federal Reserve's November meeting will have a greater influence in determining market direction. The Consumer Confidence Index is particularly important, as it can significantly impact consumer spending and inflation. Growth in this indicator is expected, which may encourage dollar buying.
US new home sales data will also provide critical insights into the housing market and overall economic activity. Higher sales may reflect stable demand, while lower sales could indicate a housing market slowdown. Mortgage rates will also play a key role in influencing consumer homebuying decisions. With US rates declining slightly, I anticipate potentially favorable results.
As for the Fed minutes, their content may shed light on potential scenarios for further monetary policy adjustments. If Fed members express support for maintaining rates at current levels, this could be seen as a signal to buy the dollar. However, if plans to lower rates in December are mentioned, the dollar could face significant selling pressure, though this scenario is unlikely. Regarding intraday strategies, I plan to focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible near the 1.0558 level (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0611. At 1.0611, I plan to exit the market and open short positions on the euro, anticipating a movement of 30-35 points downward. A strong rise in the euro today is likely only if US data disappoints.Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.0502 twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This should limit the pair's downward potential and prompt a reversal toward the 1.0558 and 1.0611 levels.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.0502 (red line on the chart), targeting the 1.0435 level. At this level, I will exit the market and buy in the opposite direction, expecting a rebound of 20-25 points. The pair is likely to come under renewed pressure today as part of the ongoing downtrend.Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.0558 twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will cap the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal toward 1.0502 and 1.0435.
Beginner Forex traders should exercise caution when deciding to enter the market. Before the release of key economic reports, it is often safer to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly deplete your deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is generally an ineffective strategy for intraday traders.
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