09.12.202413:14 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD: Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold rallied following Friday's NFP employment report, which clarified expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.

The report kept U.S. Treasury yields at low levels, providing a favorable backdrop for gold. In addition, political instability in South Korea, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over a potential trade war are also offering some support for the price of the precious metal. However, expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a less dovish stance in the future, driven by speculation that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies could lead to higher inflation, are limiting the growth of the XAU/USD pair.

Traders remain cautious, refraining from opening significant positions ahead of the release of U.S. consumer inflation data scheduled for this week.

From a technical perspective, further strengthening above the supply zone at $2,650 will encounter resistance near $2,666. Additional buying beyond this threshold would serve as a key trigger for bulls, enabling the yellow metal to reclaim the psychological level of $2,700. Momentum could then extend further to the next significant barrier around $2,722.

Conversely, weakness below the immediate support at $2,630–$2,627, corresponding to today's intraday low, could drag the price down to Friday's low near $2,614–$2,613. The next support zone lies at $2,605, which includes the psychological level of $2,600 and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A decisive break below this level would pave the way for deeper losses, exposing the November swing low around $2,537–$2,536.