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The main event influencing the currency market on Monday was the decline in the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500 index fell by 0.61% after hitting a historic high on Friday. The reversal occurred at strong technical resistance, supported by other signs of a trend shift. It is possible that the "Trump Rally" has ended, with investors moving away from risk. This is further evidenced by an 11.12% increase in the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX).
If the stock market decline continues, it may substantially impact the euro more than the nearly priced-in European Central Bank rate cut. Even if the ECB decides not to lower rates, the euro may lack the strength for significant growth. For more details, see the article "The U.S. Stock Market Ends the "Trump Rally."'
Currently, the euro is retreating from the upper boundary of the expected range, 1.0461–1.0598. The euro's weakness is already evident, as the price refrained from attempting to breach 1.0598 yesterday. The Marlin oscillator aligns near the neutral line, positioning itself to react to any ECB scenario when the decision is announced. The bears are gradually gaining the upper hand.
The four-hour chart shows that the price is pressing below the balance line for support. The Marlin oscillator has shifted into bearish territory. The MACD line supports the price at 1.0514, a neutral point within the overall range of 1.0461–1.0598. A drop below this level would enable the price to approach the ECB announcement near the support at 1.0461 preemptively and more aggressively.
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